Where have house prices increased the most - Leave or Remain voting areas?

by Theo Hildebrand on 29th October 2019

While the outcome of Brexit hangs in the balance, our latest research shows that in general Leave voting areas recorded higher average house price increases than Remain voting areas since the EU Referendum in June 2016.

Analysing average house price changes in 324 English Local Authority Areas (LAAs) since the EU Referendum vote in June 2016, Housesimple found 16 of the top 20 performing LAAs voted Leave, including Rutland (26.27%), Corby (24.8%), Harborough (23.79%), Blaby (21.68%) and Forest of Dean (21.47%), with 10 of the top 20 performing LAAs based in the East Midlands.

Only 4 Remain voting LAAs made it into the top 20, including best performer Cotswolds (30.45%), Leicester (21.57%), Rushcliffe (19.62%) and Stroud (19.35%).

Meanwhile, average house prices in London and the South East have been hardest hit since the crucial vote in 2016. 12 of the worst performing 20 LAAs are in London, including the City of London (-11.86%), Westminster (-10.08%), and Hammersmith & Fulham (-8.20%), while commuter belt LAAs Bracknell Forest (-6.63%), Elmbridge (-4.32%), and Windsor & Maidenhead (-0.66%) also recorded price drops.

Of the 39 LAAs in the North West, 32 voted Leave and 7 voted Remain. Average house prices were up the most in Leave voting Bury (19.88%), Salford (18.93%), Chorley (17.03%), Tameside (16.95%) and Oldham (16.17%). The best performing Remain voting LAAs were Trafford (18.72%), Manchester (18.66%), Stockport (16.84%), Liverpool (14.04%) and Sefton (14.02%).

Of the 21 LAAs in Yorkshire and The Humber, 18 voted Leave and 3 voted Remain. Average house prices were up the most in Leave voting North Lincolnshire (14.95%), Wakefield (13.30%), Hull (13.10%), Sheffield (12.36%) and Selby (11.98%). Of the 3 Remain voting LAAs, Leeds (13.80%) performed the best, followed by York (11.93%) and Harrogate (5.70%).

Sam Mitchell, CEO at Housesimple, believes it is important to remember that correlation does not always equal causality. Just voting Leave hasn’t made your house more valuable on its own. There are a range of reasons driving house prices in England.

The data points to an overall North-South divide. Brexit uncertainty does not appear to have affected the North to the extent that we may be seeing in the South. Other Important factors underpin these findings, including punitive stamp duty that has a lower impact on properties valued under £500,000 so there is less of a drag factor in the North. We’re also seeing a longer term trend whereby house price growth in London and the South East that really took off in 2012 has been slowing to more sustainable levels since 2016, or even dropping in some London LAAs. At the same time properties in the North and the Midlands saw more modest growth post 2007, and cities like Manchester, Liverpool, Leicester and Leeds have robust local economies and increasing demand for housing which has helped to drive double digit price increases since the referendum

The bottom line is that despite the fact Brexit uncertainty will now drag on into 2020, the market fundamentals - a long-running supply and demand issue, historically low interest rates and growing income levels - remain in place. Life goes on, people still need to buy and sell. Why put your life on hold for Brexit? Keep going and find an estate agent that makes the process simple, transparent and free.

The following table shows the regional average house price change (%) and EU Referendum Leave Vote (%):

Ranking

Region

EU Referendum Vote: % Leave 

(June 2016) 

Average House Price % Change 

(June 2016 to August 2019)

1

East Midlands

58.80%

16.22%

2

West Midlands

59.30%

14.02%

3

North West

53.70%

13.53%

4

South West

52.60%

11.64%

5

Yorkshire

57.70%

10.25%

6

East of England

56.50%

10.05%

7

South East

51.80%

6.92%

8

North East

58.00%

6.18%

9

London

40.10%

0.99%

The following table shows the 20 English Local Authority Areas with the largest increase in average house prices (%) between June 2016 and August 2019, with corresponding EU Referendum voting (%): 

Region

Area

EU Referendum Vote Leave (%) 

EU Referendum Vote Remain (%)

Average House Price Change (%)

Jun 16 - Aug 19

South West

Cotswold

48.9

51.1

30.45%

East Midlands

Rutland

50.57

49.43

26.27%

East Midlands

Corby

64.25

35.75

24.80%

East Midlands

Harborough

50.75

49.25

23.79%

East Midlands

Blaby

59.47

40.53

21.68%

East Midlands

Leicester

48.92

51.08

21.57%

South West

Forest of Dean

58.58

41.42

21.47%

South East

Thanet

63.85

36.15

20.44%

East

King's Lynn and West Norfolk

66.4

33.6

20.28%

East Midlands

Hinckley and Bosworth

60.33

39.67

20.12%

East Midlands

South Kesteven

59.93

40.07

19.94%

North West

Bury

54.12

45.88

19.88%

East

Peterborough

60.89

39.11

19.75%

South East

Hastings

54.88

45.12

19.71%

East Midlands

Rushcliffe

42.45

57.55

19.62%

South West

Stroud

45.39

54.61

19.35%

East Midlands

Gedling

55.55

44.45

19.16%

East

Maldon

62.58

37.42

18.94%

North West

Salford

56.81

43.19

18.93%

East Midlands

Kettering

60.99

39.01

18.73%

The following table shows the 20 English Local Authority Areas with the largest decrease in average house prices (%) between June 2016 and August 2019, with corresponding EU Referendum voting (%): 

Region

Area

EU Referendum Vote Leave (%) 

EU Referendum Vote Remain (%)

Average House Price Change (%)

Jun 16 - Aug 19

London

City of London

24.71

75.29

-11.86%

London

Westminster

31.03

68.97

-10.08%

London

Hammersmith and Fulham

29.98

70.02

-8.20%

South East

Bracknell Forest

53.94

46.06

-6.63%

South East

Elmbridge

40.47

59.53

-4.32%

London

Brent

40.26

59.74

-3.83%

South East

South Bucks

50.7

49.3

-3.04%

London

Barnet

37.77

62.23

-2.34%

London

Tower Hamlets

32.54

67.46

-1.89%

London

Wandsworth

24.97

75.03

-1.79%

South East

Mole Valley

46.92

53.08

-0.75%

South East

Windsor and Maidenhead

46.1

53.9

-0.66%

South East

Reading

41.97

58.03

-0.60%

London

Southwark

27.19

72.81

-0.42%

London

Ealing

39.6

60.4

-0.15%

London

Sutton

53.72

46.28

0.11%

London

Hillingdon

56.37

43.63

0.11%

London

Harrow

45.37

54.63

0.56%

East

St Albans

37.29

62.71

0.67%

North East

Sunderland

61.34

38.66

0.69%

The following table shows the 39 North West Local Authority Areas average house prices (%) between June 2016 and August 2019, with corresponding EU Referendum voting (%): 

Region

Area

EU Referendum Vote Leave (%) 

EU Referendum Vote Remain (%)

Average House Price Change (%)

Jun 16 - Aug 19

North West

Bury

54.12

45.88

19.88%

North West

Salford

56.81

43.19

18.93%

North West

Trafford

42.31

57.69

18.72%

North West

Manchester

39.64

60.36

18.66%

North West

Chorley

56.83

43.17

17.03%

North West

Tameside

61.14

38.86

16.95%

North West

Stockport

47.67

52.33

16.84%

North West

Oldham

60.86

39.14

16.17%

North West

Blackburn with Darwen

56.34

43.66

15.94%

North West

Burnley

66.61

33.39

15.85%

North West

Rossendale

60.68

39.32

15.69%

North West

Knowsley

51.56

48.44

14.66%

North West

Rochdale

60.07

39.93

14.62%

North West

Allerdale

58.65

41.35

14.26%

North West

Liverpool

41.81

58.19

14.04%

North West

Sefton

48.13

51.87

14.02%

North West

Bolton

58.29

41.71

13.20%

North West

South Lakeland

47.14

52.86

13.03%

North West

Warrington

54.27

45.73

12.87%

North West

Eden

53.32

46.68

12.62%

North West

Wigan

63.9

36.1

12.40%

North West

Barrow-in-Furness

60.62

39.38

11.43%

North West

Fylde

56.96

43.04

10.69%

North West

West Lancashire

55.31

44.69

10.46%

North West

Wirral

48.3

51.7

10.25%

North West

Wyre

63.77

36.23

10.19%

North West

Cheshire East

51.18

48.82

9.83%

North West

St. Helens

58.02

41.98

9.76%

North West

Copeland

62

38

8.79%

North West

Halton

57.42

42.58

8.46%

North West

Hyndburn

66.19

33.81

8.19%

North West

Blackpool

67.46

32.54

7.01%

North West

Lancaster

51.08

48.92

6.61%

North West

Cheshire West and Chester

50.68

49.32

6.17%

North West

South Ribble

58.56

41.44

5.65%

North West

Pendle

63.15

36.85

5.38%

North West

Carlisle

60.14

39.86

4.59%

North West

Ribble Valley

56.39

43.61

3.30%

North West

Preston

53.31

46.69

1.53%

The following table shows the 21 Yorkshire & The Humber Local Authority Areas average house prices (%) between June 2016 and August 2019, with corresponding EU Referendum voting (%): 

Region

Area

EU Referendum Vote Leave (%) 

EU Referendum Vote Remain (%)

Average House Price Change (%)

Jun 16 - Aug 19

Yorkshire and The Humber

North Lincolnshire

66.3

33.7

14.95%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Leeds

49.69

50.31

13.80%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Wakefield

66.36

33.64

13.30%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Kingston upon Hull, City of

67.62

32.38

13.10%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Sheffield

50.99

49.01

12.36%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Selby

59.17

40.83

11.98%

Yorkshire and The Humber

York

41.96

58.04

11.93%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Rotherham

67.89

32.11

11.24%

Yorkshire and The Humber

East Riding of Yorkshire

60.4

39.6

11.14%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Kirklees

54.67

45.33

10.59%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Scarborough

61.99

38.01

10.40%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Ryedale

55.26

44.74

10.40%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Richmondshire

56.78

43.22

10.34%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Calderdale

55.68

44.32

9.99%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Barnsley

68.31

31.69

9.35%

Yorkshire and The Humber

North East Lincolnshire

69.87

30.13

9.12%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Craven

52.83

47.17

7.96%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Bradford

54.23

45.77

7.56%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Harrogate

49.03

50.97

5.70%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Doncaster

68.96

31.04

5.24%

Yorkshire and The Humber

Hambleton

53.66

46.34

1.02%

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